QPORIT

SIMPLE PREDICTIONS for 2021

·       Technological development will continue to increase exponentially.

o   It will be a difficult challenge to equitably distribute the benefits of technology to all social, geographical, age, financial and other demographics.

o   There will be new cameras and new headsets for Virtual Reality.

o   There will be progress in developing Augmented & Mixed Reality.

o   AI will have new techniques and new business applications .

§  Chinese AI companies will do very well.

§  Robotics will improve significantly.

§  Automated vehicles will make big advances.

o   5G will continue to roll out, and there will be a few notable applications.

§  Getting fast 5G to rural areas will go very slowly.

·       (“5G” includes several different technologies of different speeds.)

o   Cloud services will be a big business.

o   Cyber security and regulation of technology will be major issues.

§  But they are complicated and there will be no major solutions in 2021.

§  New laws and new ways of thinking about technology may be needed.

§  It may even be necessary to change the fundamental TCP/IP and other protocols that govern Internet communications.

·       The most urgent issue will be to stamp out COVID-19.

o   All predictions of timing depend on mutations of the coronavirus leaving vaccines intact and the modes of transmission relatively similar.

o   The first quarter, and the first month especially, will see continued high levels of illness and mortality.

o   Mass vaccinations will be increasing through the summer.

o   There will be tentative attempts at a "new normal” in the fall of 2021.

§  There will continue, throughout the year, to be improvements in remote work, education, and entertainment.

§  This will continue as part of the “new normal".

·       President Trump will continue to make trouble -- through the certification of Biden as the new President, the inauguration and beyond, unless he is stopped (for example by being banned from social media, or being sued, or being arrested; or by seriously overstepping in his quest to reverse the election result).

·       There will be major systemic issues that must be dealt with. These include:

o   A high level of long-term unemployment due to the depression of travel, entertainment, in-person dining and shopping, that is likely to continue at least until late summer or fall.

o   The financial difficulties of state and local governments.

§  If not dealt with, this could spread to economic problems throughout the economy.

o   Mistreatment of minorities -- by police and other parts of government and society.

o   An infrastructure that has been ignored for too long and needs a massive upgrade.

§  In some cases, there may be critically dangerous situations.

§  In many cases of public utilities, the prevalence of power outages, internet outages, water purity, and other chronic conditions must be stopped.

o   A foreign policy that has distanced the US from its allies, allowed our international adversaries to benefit, and damaged the reputation of the US.

§  This must be reversed.

§  International cooperation must be accelerated, for example, with respect to

·       Global warning

·       Pandemics

·       Space laws

·       International cyber issues

·       Crime.

o   The system of oversight of the executive branch.

§  It must be strengthened.

o   The system of national elections.

·       Possible actions include a study or movement toward national election laws, such as

o   an independent election commission or

o   abolishing the electoral college in favor of a national popular vote.

o   The skewed distribution of wealth and income.

§  National legislation may be needed.

§  Excessive wealth by a few does not leave enough for everyone else.

§  Poverty in the US is unacceptable.

o   Immigration.

§  The whole process needs to be changed to allow a respect for immigrants from their application through citizenship.

o   The changing climate.

§  Efforts must accelerate to

·       Ameliorate the effects of climate change.

·       Reduce (or reverse!) global warming.

o   National health.

§  Every person in the US (for any reason)

·       Should be able to find affordable medical care at any time.

o   Including affordable medications.

o   Education and culture.

§  Every child should have a good education from pre-kindergarten on.

§   Every child should have access to the digital tools (such as fast Internet and a good computer) necessary for online learning. 

§  Every person in the US should be able to get a free college education.

§  The level of every citizen needs to be raised with respect to

·       Understanding the American system of government

o   The issues facing society

·       Mathematics

·       All the sciences

·       World history and world geography

·       Literature and the arts.