Sunday, January 19, 2020
Review: FAREED ZAKARIA GPS
FAREED ZAKARIA GPS
SUNDAYS ON CNN
Fareed Zakaria's show, GPS ("GPS" actually stands for "Global Public Square") is the best, and more-or-less the only source of international news and commentary on network or cable television.
It is on Sundays on CNN.
Today's show (Jan 19 >> 2020-01-19) featured several international stories that have been under-reported in the US: overwhelmed by US domestic television impeachment news (and by the lack of international news generally).
1 - RUSSIA
There has been a major shake-up in the Russian government in the last few days, with Medvedev resigning as Prime Minister, and becoming a deputy to Putin; a new Prime Minister taking office; a new constitution in the making; and a whole lot of other changes going on, about which little has been reported in the US.
(There is also a story in the WSJ, but the link is behind a "register/login" firewall. The NYT article above may also be behind a "register/login" firewall, but I am inside so I cannot tell.)
2 - CHINA
Fareed believes that the US / China trade deal was a big win for China and that Trump caved (presumably to avoid economic disruption on the eve of the impeachment trial followed by the US election.)
(There is also an article Fareed wrote in the Washington Post a few days ago, "Why Trump Caved on China", but the link is behind a "register/login" firewall.)
3 - LIBYA
There is currently a factional war in Libya. Russia and Turkey have brokered a temporary truce and an on-going summit between the parties. (This story, curiously, was entirely in the bottom scroll, not part of the discussion.)
4 - AUSTRALIA & THE US
A former Prime Minister of Australia suggested that the climate changes which underpin the devastating fires (and less well known severe storms) in Australia, are leading indicators of events that could befall the US, which has similar possibilities of climate change causing ever more severe fires in California (and storms in Florida), areas with similar climate to corresponding areas in Australia.
5 - THE FUTURE
Fareed is supporting an effort in crowd-sourced prediction.
There were also two items in the show that I am less enthusiastic about:
6 - THE FINANCIAL FUTURE
Fareed discussed a (somewhat dubious, in my opinion) financial forecast which claimed that whatever investment strategy was the most successful during a decade, would not be the most successful during the following decade. In the 2010-2020 decade FANG was the most successful. The prediction is simply that it will not be the most successful in the 2020-2030 period.
I am confident that it will be possible to interpret the data in 2030 to validate this claim. However, as a prediction it is necessary to be very specific as to how the "prediction" was made, and how it is to be tested.
I am dubious about the methodology and value of the claim, not the possibility that it could be justified -- (if anyone even remembers it in 10 years -- it's always safe to make a prediction that is not likely to be remembered when it is time to test it.)
Currently the FANG stocks are benefiting from the exponential growth of digital technology (eXtended Reality) and the benefits of scale that currently favor the biggest technology companies to grow the fastest. For the FANG stocks to falter any of the following could be the cause.
- The economy runs out of money (at the rate they are growing -- $1 Trillion after a few decades since founding -- they would each be worth at least $30T to $50 Trillion by 2030; collectively that could be more than a quarter of a quadrillion dollars - $250,000,000,000,000.[*]
- New technology causes a young company to suddenly overtake older technology companies -- this requires a "failure to execute" on the part of the FANG as they are currently trying to lead US innovation;
- A rise to dominance of Chinese or other non-US companies and economies -- this could occur if the US administration continues to look backward, supporting declining technologies, rather than supporting across the board innovation, including improved education across the country.
A COMMERCIAL FOR CHEESE
A commercial for cheese showed a young boy express disgust over a meal of fresh salmon, and delight over cheese & tacos. I'm perfectly fine with good cheese and good tacos, but it is a dis-service to show and advertise disgust over other, healthy food.
[*]
1,000 thousand
1,000,000 = million
1,000,000,000 = billion
1,000,000,000,000 = trillion
1,000,000,000,000,000 = quadrillion
$ 250,000,000,000,000 = a quarter of a quadrillion dollars
Labels: a quadrillion dollars, areed Zakaria, Australia, China, climate change, Forecasting, GPS, Libya, Russia, the future
Sunday, September 21, 2014
TRACKS
TRACKS
DIRECTED BY JOHN CURRAN
STARRING MIA WASIKOWSKA
WITH ADAM DRIVER AS RICK SMOLAN
FEATURING FOUR CAMELS AND A DOG
AND THE AUSTRALIAN DESERT
Mia Wasikowska, an Australian actress, stars in the Australian epic film TRACKS, about Robyn Davidson's epic journey across the Australian desert with four camels and a dog, occasional visits from National Geographic photographer Rick Smolan, and assorted brief encounters with other people.
(Robyn’s phenomenal solo trek from Alice Springs to Uluru and on to the Indian Ocean saw her traverse nearly 2,000 miles of spectacular yet unforgiving Australian desert accompanied only by her loyal dog and four unpredictable camels.)
MIA WASIKOWSKA AND CAMELS
TRACKS
The acting is excellent: the dog, the camels, the two principal humans, the landscape, and all the supporting players.
It is always hard to consider -- in isolation -- a film that is about a book that is about a real event. (In this case, actually, there are at least two books, an essay, the book TRACKS by Robyn Davidson herself, who made the trip, and a photo book by Rick Smolan with text by Robyn.)
While it is perhaps easiest to concentrate only on the film, just noting where it may collide with the books or the real world, it does collide in a few important ways.
First, the film portrays the motivation for the trip in a very (too?) simple way. To me it seems to be saying she just got this (crazy) idea in her head to do something extreme that requires total self reliance -- with no backstory and no future plans. That seems hard to accept, especially since we know she went on to write about this, and then write more books. And most people have some kind of idea about the future, and a backstory.
Second, although the cinematography is very good, it is not spectacular (at least not in the relatively small-screen screening room in which I saw it). Part of the reason Robyn's story had resonance was the extraordinary photos of Rick Smolan. The film, while it uses the character of Smolan (played nicely in low key by Adam Driver) to keep the story moving, does not celebrate the visual representation of the experience.
Third, the film does celebrate the charismatic camels, who seem to be almost pussycats in their demeanor (except when males are horny). What I've previously heard about camels was mostly about their nasty disposition. (Are Australian camels different?)
Finally, though Mia does a great job of carrying the film (and even seems to bear a close resemblance to Robyn), whenever she kissed a camel or looked particularly haggard and sunburnt, I stopped thinking of her character and began wondering how the actress was feeling.
TRACKS manages to convey the difficulty and tedium of a marathon trek without ever becoming tedious (a trap that is hard to avoid -- think of Kelly Reichardt's Meek's Cutoff, which conveyed the enormous effort of a long, long wagon train cross-country journey by seeming to take forever itself.)
The collision of a film with its real life origins and literary sources certainly helps generate its resonance.
That said, returning to the film itself, TRACKS is a well-told, well acted story of an epic adventure.
ADAM DRIVER AND MIA WASIKOWSKA
TRACKS
TRACKS may be inspirational to many; and even more, it should be an absolute delight to anyone who loves camels and dogs, travel, solitude, and achieving personal goals.
PREVIEW
LINKS
TRACKS - WIKIPEDIA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tracks_(2013_film)
MIA WASIKOWSKA - WIKIPEDIA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mia_Wasikowska
MIA WASIKOWSKA - IMDB
http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1985859/
ROBYN DAVIDSON - WIKIPEDIA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robyn_Davidson
RICK SMOLAN - WIKIPEDIA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rick_Smolan
THE BOOKS
RICK SMOLAN ON AMAZON
Labels: Adam Driver, Australia, camels, desert, John Curran, Mia Wasikowska, TRACKS
