Wednesday, October 09, 2024

 

HURRICANES & OUR WILD PLANET


We are ALL living on a wild planet.  It obeys natural not human laws. There is a massive amount of energy coming from the sun to animate the seas and the air. Earth’s interior is still hot, and the land is moving, literally, under our feet, powered by the huge energy of gravity. 

As a result, we have hurricanes and tornadoes that roil our air and our oceans, earthquakes and volcanoes that move our land, and by so doing poison the air and raise the sea with tsunamis.

The power of the forces that disturb our Earth exceeds the power of humans.  ALL humans

At this moment in time, we are nowhere near, in our human technology, from overcoming the terrors that natural power can invoke. 

But we can ALL work together to mitigate the harm that nature wields against us.

With one hurricane, Helene, just past, and  another, Milton, about to strike, striking in fact the same region as Helene, this is not a time to play politics, but it is a time for serious politics. Serious politics is the art and science of working together to protect each other.

With rising temperatures fueling more and more violent weather, and raising sea levels, we must, as a world community, while we strive to find technologies and behavior that will help alleviate the causes of rising temperature, we must all devote more resources to mitigating its effects.

Physical engineering,  social engineering, and social planning must work together to recognize vulnerabilities, prevent them as much as possible, and prepare to defend them when they are attacked.

In this country, much more needs to be done. Some simple steps include much more money for FEMA; applying building codes to prevent houses from being built in fire zones; and requiring buildings and all infrastructure to withstand earthquakes and tsunamis, even those of currently almost unimaginable severity.

We need to recognize areas that are vulnerable, and provide escape routes, as well as reducing the risks through engineering and planning.

As just one example, Long Island, in New York State, has not had a bad hurricane in a long time. As we watch the storm blow into Florida, we should be thinking about Long Island. It is long. Many people live there. Even more come there during the hurricane season. There is very little capacity to move people from the East back to New York City. It is very low. A major hurricane, with a major storm surge could completely flood the center of this long island, creating two short islands. A major hurricane that crosses the center of Long Island with little warning, could create one of the worst natural disasters in the history of the United States.

Let’s work together, We care about each other. The Earth does not care, but we do.

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Wednesday, September 11, 2024

 

9/11

 


2001-09-11 -- 2024-09-11



No man is an island,
Entire of itself.

Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.

If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.

As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.

Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.

John Donne

1572 - 1631

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Tuesday, September 10, 2024

 

THE 2024 LANDSLIDE - PART II: THE DEBATE

 


WHY AND HOW

KAMALA HARRIS

AND THE DEMOCRATS 

CAN WIN A LANDSLIDE 


UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT

IN 2024


PART II: DEALING WITH THE DEBATE


SEE PART I:

https://qporit.blogspot.com/2024/08/2024-landslide-why-how.html


==>> UPDATE 2024-09-10

A few quick post-debate updates:

    Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala.

    Donald Trump emphatically stated that he believes he won the 2020 election.

    Kamala looked happy and confident. She made her points. She rattled Trump.

    Trump rambled and lied and lied and lied and insulted everything American he could mention. 

    Trump refused to say he believed that Ukraine should win the war. 

    Kamala was clear that failing to defend Ukraine would put Poland at risk.

    Trump offered the authoritarian leader of Hungary as a character reference.

    Trump was clear that had no plan to improve health care. In fact, he had no plan for any issue at all.

    Trump said that people are eating other people's dogs. (He really said that, even when contradicted by the Moderator,)

    Kamala was very clear that she would be looking out for the welfare of all Americans, and was looking to improve the lives of Americans in very practical ways.

    

A few quick post-debate editorial comments:

    Kamala did very well in the debate.  She looked good, confident, and Presidential. This will continue the momentum of her campaign.

    For the most part, she did exactly what she needed to do. I do believe, as I said below, that Kamala would do well to amplify her plans to boost the promises of future technology, avoid its hazards, and make sure its benefits are made available to all Americans. This would, I believe, assist her campaign among males, VC's, investors, & technologists, young voters, and everyone else.

    Trump did badly, probably lost a significant number of voters and media commentators, probably made no new supporters.

    I can say, personally, that Trump lied when he claimed that all Democrats supported the reversal of Roe v Wade.

    For me, the most disturbing moment was when Trump said (insisted!) he won the 2020 election.  I am fearful for what new methods he and his supporters will use to try to prevent a free and fair election, and the certification of the actual results. Even more troublesome is that for him to deny the rightful result of the election at this point is delusional, and therefor dangerous, disqualifying, and profoundly anti-American. I do not believe any supporter of such a disturbed human, nor such a demented person themself, should be any where near the leadership of this country.


==>> END UPDATE 2024-09-10

* * * * *

Since the first Kennedy-Nixon debate, it has become clear that the “debate” is not really a debate. It is a reality show, very similar to the knockoff climax of each episode of the Apprentice, when leaders of the two groups would try to prove that they – whether or not they had - objectively - the best results – were the person NOT to get fired.

Trump, himself an unsuccessful apprentice at being President, nevertheless had years of experience, experimenting with the best way to succeed at this type of event. His manner at his “debate” experiences against Hillary and Biden, shows that he learned that being the loudest, the most forceful, and the most aggressive works fairly well, for him. Telling the truth doesn’t matter much.

In fact, the most important factors in the Presidential “debate” have proved to be (in order!):

 

Critical:

   1.      Whether you made any kind of a serious error.

   2.      How good you look - looking good, strong & “Presidential” is a requirement.

   3.      How you sound - sounding strong & confident helps.

   4.      Whether you have a good one-liner that the press can repeat over and over in their “analysis” of the event.
 

Much less important:

5a - Whether you told the truth accurately (note: lying on purpose is deemed less serious than making an unintentional serious error), and/or

5b - how well you called out false statements by the other person.

6            - (and more or less last) - Whether you demonstrated or exhibited the experience, knowledge and plans to be a successful President, who could and would run the government well.

This is, by the way, a strange list of priorities, which read from bottom to top as a much better way to evaluate a candidate for the Presidency.

 

In the recent debate between Biden and Trump, if you analyze the text of the answers, Biden showed greater Presidential abilities. He was savaged by makeup that was too pale, camera angles that showed his head smaller than Trump’s on the screen, and that often caught him looking down or away from  the camera and not directly at it; and a mic that needed higher volume amplification. Remnants of Biden’s lifelong stuttering, on his attempts to answer questions with a complex and thoughtful analysis, was not a match for Trump’s high volume, high velocity torrent of insults and lies, ignoring the questions that were asked.

 

Several things have happened in past debates that should be noted and combatted.

First, as suggested above, it is essential that Kamala’s team make sure her mic is loud, her tone rich, her hair and makeup is on point, her lighting is good, and the producer who selects the camera shots shows her looking good. She should usually be looking at the camera, the questioner, or at Trump; and the camera shot should show that.

 

By the way, in past debates. Trump has moved around a lot; and has talked loudly and with such a barrage of lies, that responding concisely – or at all! – becomes difficult.  It is really a positive, I think, that the mic is muted when it is not a person’s time to speak. It could be impossible for Kamala to speak if Trump simply interrupted her every time she tried to speak. Since it is on-brand for T, it might really not matter how vile that is.

 

Kamala must come out looking like a Presidential winner; and leave looking like a Debate And Presidential winner.

In debates in the past, Trump has stated that he would not accept the results of the election; that he believes his opponent should be jailed. He also, when asked to condemn violent groups, instead told them to “stand by”. If he says anything like this, Kamala must be ready to deliver a “killer” response.

 

Trump lies. Too often to be corrected completely.  Kamala must have a good response to Trump’s lies. Pete Buttigieg has been very effective on Fox, simply overwhelming the question with facts. Here, the time constraints must be taken into account, in preparing a response in advance.

 

Trump has several favorite issues: the economy; the border; the Afghanistan withdrawal. Trump is actually very vulnerable on each of these issues, Kamala’s response must be definitive.

 

With some help from a political comedian, T’s frequent habit of using childish, lazy, extremal debating cliches, like “everybody knows…” “the worst/greatest in American history… “ “embarrassing… ” , could be destroyed and turned into a source of ridicule forever.

The violence, the threats to the election process, the cultivation of domestic terrorists, fascists and neo-Nazis, the support for Dictators,  and for a Day One Dictatorship, and the detailed, terrible plans laid out in Project 2025, must be called out quickly and demolished in a way that resonates.  I believe that “dangerous” and “delusional” and “dishonest” and “disloyal” and “unfit to be Commander in Chief” and even unAmerican, can be added to “weird” as a concise characterization of Trump’s threat to the country.

Of course, in the event that the moderators have “control” of the event, and they really try to get important insights and answers on policy, it is vital to have the best sounding and the most logical answers for the basic policy questions.

Kamala’s current best issues are well known, and they veer toward the issues that most middle-class households find important. That is the base of her support, and she must cement that.

 

In order for important policies to become the law of the land, it is necessary for support in both houses of Congress.  To prevent states from sabotaging some policies where states can usurp control of the policy, it is also important to gain control of state governments.  Kamala should try to teach out and emphasize the importance of electing people at every level of government who will work for policies for the people and for the country. With more and more Republicans disgusted by Trump, and by the RINOs who have taken control of their party, reaching out to Republicans, while attacking the RINO’s for their irresponsible fealty to Trump’s fascist proclivities, is very logical and very important.

 

And, to tap into support from the media, the rich, young men, teachers, scientists, and technicians, (and everyone else!)  I believe that it would be extremely helpful for Kamala to bring, to the debate, something new and powerful, and specific, to her vision of the future of technology -- that it must be safe, and it must be available to every American in every corner of the county. The future is coming. It is coming exponentially faster and faster, and Americans must know that she will accelerate progress, while making sure, absolutely sure, that its hazards are controlled, and its benefits are shared by all Americans.




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Sunday, September 01, 2024

 

AI and the SPELLING of STRAWBERRY


A very interesting YouTube short noted that CHAT GPT & other AI models did not correctly answer the question "How many r's are there in the word, "strawberry" ?". They answered 2, but the correct answer, of course, is 3. (stRawbeRRy).

(Note: I'm curious if the recent announcement of Open AI's "Strawberry" model is related to this issue.  According to some reports, "Strawberry" is better at "precise" reasoning -- like math -- than AI predecessors.)

According to the short, this is because of the way the AI algorithm tokenizes the question (aka prompt).


I decided to test it.. First, here is a link to the short: 

https://youtube.com/shorts/7pQrMAekdn4?si=SkXStomGcFlAX_gf



Here is my dialog with Chat GPT 4o:


 User


You said:
how many "r".s in the word "strawberry"
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT

The word "strawberry" contains two "r"s.

You said:
No. there are three r's s t r a w b e r r y
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT

I see where the confusion might have come from, but the word "strawberry" indeed has two "r"s. Here’s the breakdown:

  • s
  • t
  • r
  • a
  • w
  • b
  • e
  • r
  • r
  • y

So there are two "r"s in "strawberry."

You said:
s t r=1 a w b e r=2 r=3 y 3 r's. I just counted
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT

It seems there's a mix-up. Let’s break it down again:

  • The first "r" is in the third position: s t r a w b e r r y
  • The second "r" is in the eighth position: s t r a w b e r r y
  • The third "r" you mentioned might be the same as the one in the ninth position, but it's actually still the second "r."

So the word "strawberry" has two "r"s, not three. The confusion might be because the second "r" is repeated in your count, but it doesn't add up to three different "r"s.

You said:
the two r's come one right after another, but there is still one r by itself and 2 more r's together
ChatGPT said:
ChatGPT

Apologies for the confusion in my previous responses. You are correct.

Let's break down the word "strawberry" letter by letter:

  1. S
  2. T
  3. R (1st "r")
  4. A
  5. W
  6. B
  7. E
  8. R (2nd "r")
  9. R (3rd "r")
  10. Y

So, "strawberry" contains three "r"s:

  1. The first "r" in the third position.
  2. The second "r" in the eighth position.
  3. The third "r" right after the second one in the ninth position.

Thank you for pointing that out, and I apologize for the earlier mistake!

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Monday, August 19, 2024

 

2024 LANDSLIDE - WHY & HOW!

 

 

On the eve of the Democratic National Convention of 2024, a key landmark in the 2024 election campaign, here is a post about …

 

WHY AND HOW THE DEMOCRATS 

CAN WIN 

A LANDSLIDE VICTORY

UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT

 

This is – will be -- a multi-part series. Additional sections, many related to different aspects of HOW to win a landslide! will be posted as the campaign evolves, and this post itself may be updated as (minute by minute!) election day approaches…

 

WHY

 

A SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR DEMOCRACY!

A SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR FREEDOM!

THIS GENERATIONAL CHANGE – THE KAMALA HARRIS – TIM WALZ TICKET -- IS GENERATING HUGE AND GROWING EXCITEMENT AMONG VOTERS.

THERE ARE MORE DEMOCRATIC VOTERS THAN REPUBLICAN VOTERS. AND… ADDING TO THE DEMOCRATS THE GENUINE REPUBLICANS (who believe in a republic!  as opposed to the RINOS who support Trump’s project 2025) THERE ARE MANY MORE DEMOCRATS PLUS NORMAL REPUBLICANS THAN THERE ARE EXTREME RIGHT WING MAGA VOTERS.

ELECTIONS DEPEND ON HOW PEOPLE FEEL ABOUT THE CANDIDATES, AND KAMALA & WALZ ARE ELECTRIFYING THE ELECTORATE.

THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES FAVOR THE DEMOCRATS. (More about this later!)

THERE ARE MANY, MANY WAYS THAT ALL THE OTHER ISSUES FAVOR THE DEMOCRATS AS WELL.

THE USA IS MUCH MUCH BETTER OFF THAN WE WERE FOUR YEARS AGO.

THE BIDEN-HARRIS TERM HAS QUITE A SPECTACULAR RECORD OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS.

 

WHILE ON THE OTHER SIDE:

 

(IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER),

·        TRUMP IS A CRIMINAL,

·        HE IS A SEXUAL ABUSER,

·        HE INCITED A VIOLENT MOB AS PART OF A PLOT TO REMAIN PRESIDENT EVEN THOUGH HE LOST THE ELECTION,

·        HE WAS CONVICTED OF A MASSIVE FRAUD OF ROUGHLY HALF A BILLION DOLLARS,

·        HE IS A LIAR,

·        HE IS A HYPOCRITE,

·        HE FAVORS PUTIN OVER THE US.

o   AT TRUMP’S DEMAND, THE GOP BLOCKED AID TO ISRAEL & UKRAINE FOR MONTHS

·        HIS SPEECHES AND INTERVIEWS ARE BECOMING MORE AND MORE INCOHERENT,

·        AND IN SOME OF THE MOST DANGEROUS TRAITS A PRESIDENT CAN HAVE:

o   HE IS FOR SALE,

§  CHANGING HIS POLICIES WHEN HE IS GIVEN ENOUGH MONEY.

o   HE IS EGOTISTICAL,

§   INTERESTED IN WINNING AND SERVING HIMSELF, NOT SERVING THE COUNTRY, 

o   AND HE IS DELUSIONAL

Worse, possibly, than all of these together, Trump appears to be not just normalizing insults, THREATS, violence and physical attacks, as part of his political and legal process, but actually encouraging them.

 

BEYOND THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, THE GOP VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IS NOT CONNECTING WITH VOTERS. (FYI -- WHEN ASKED WHY HE PICKED VANCE, TRUMP EXPLAINED SIMPLY THAT… HE LIKES ME.)

AND THE ENTIRE GOP PARTY IS REPORTEDLY SHORT OF MONEY TO SUPPORT THE ENTIRE TICKET IN NON-PRESIDENTIAL RACES.

THIS IS NOT HELPED WHEN TRUMP SUCKS MONEY OUT OF LOCAL & STATE REPUBLICAN PARTIES FOR HIS PERSONAL CAMPAIGN AND LEGAL EXPENSES.

 

IN CONCLUSION

·        SOME OF THE MOST DISTINGUISHED REPUBLICANS IN THE COUNTRY WORKED FOR TRUMP, AND NOW SAY HE IS UNFIT TO BE PRESIDENT.

o   MANY OTHERS WHO WORKED FOR HIM ARE IN JAIL.

§  HE “DRAINED THE SWAMP” RIGHT INTO THE WHITE HOUSE.

·        BY CONTRAST

o   DEMOCRATS, INDEPENDENTS & EVEN TRUE REPUBLICANS ARE ENERGIZED!

§  AFTER  BIDEN RETIRED FROM THE CAMPAIGN, KAMALA AND HER TEAM HAVE BEEN EXECUTING AN ALMOST PERFECT CAMPAIGN.

o   THE BIDEN-HARRIS TEAM HAS HAD AN EXTREMELY SUCCESSFUL TERM.

§  THE ECONOMY IS TERRIFIC.

·        THE STOCK MARKET IS AT ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS.

·        PRICES ARE MODERATING AND INTEREST RATES ARE GOING DOWN

·        JOBS AND WAGES ARE UP.

·        STUDENT DEBT IS DOWN!

§  IMMIGRATION IS DOING BETTER

·        (IF THE GOP HAD NOT TANKED THE BIPARTISAN IMMIGRATION BILL ON TRUMP’S COMMAND IT WOULD BE DOING EVEN BETTER)

§  THE CHIPS BILL & THE INFRASTRUCTURE BILL ARE MAKING AMERICAN MANUFACTURING COMPETITIVE WITH THE WORLD, AGAIN.

 

HOW

FIRST OF ALL: YES ,THEY ARE DOING VERY WELL! AND YES, I BELIEVE THEY WILL WIN BY A LANDSLIDE AND YES, THE POLLS SHOW THEM CONSTANTLY IMPROVING, BUT

1.      TO MAKE THIS PREDICTION OF A LANDSLIDE COME TRUE EVERYONE INTERESTED IN SEEING THE HARRIS/WALZ TEAM WIN HAS TO WORK AS HARD AS THEY CAN TO MAKE IT ACTUALLY HAPPEN. A LANDSLIDE WILL NOT HAPPEN BECAUSE I PREDICT IT.

a.      ONLY HARD WORK CAN MAKE A LANDSLIDE HAPPEN!

2.      THE POLLS ARE STILL CLOSE

a.      POLLS ARE NOT THE SAME AS VOTES.

3.      THERE ARE HINTS THAT TRUMP & HIS COLLABORATORS ARE TRYING (EVEN HARDER THAN THEY DID LAST TIME) TO STEAL THE 2024 ELECTION

a.      ONLY HARD WORK (LEGAL, LAW ENFORCEMENT, WELL-TRAINED POLL WORKERS & MORE) CAN MAKE SURE THE LANDSLIDE IS CERTIFIED!

 

More about HOW and WHY to come in future installments, such as...


Dealing with the issues - attacks and being attacked

Dealing with the "debates"

Dealing with ALL the media

Dealing with surprises

Dealing with Down Ballot races

Dealing with Kamala's current job

Dealing for $$$

How we Americans can help

The ethics of XR in the economy and in government.


 

DISCLAIMERS, APOLOGIES AND BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES

APOLOGY:  I apologize to anyone who is offended, for calling Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris mostly by their first names, and Trump, Walz, and Vance by their last names; it just seemed more familiar and easier to identify them that way, and in some cases more appropriately friendly -- or not.

BIO NOTES: The author began campaigning for Democrats in High School, joining Eleanor Roosevelt trying to unseat Tammany Hall, and elect Reform Democrats in New York City (Author’s note: I have a photo I took of Eleanor Roosevelt gamely climbing into an open campaign truck with volunteers to go to the sight of a rally.)

 In College he became a member of the Executive Committee of the National Student Young Democrats, and chairman of the policy and platform committee. He campaigned for Adlai Stevenson in the Primaries, and worked and slept at the Stevenson Headquarters at the DNC convention in LA. After Kennedy was nominated, he worked to organize student Young Democratic clubs at colleges in NY and neighboring states.

 

After starting graduate studies in physics, he continued to follow politics and political issues.

In 2005, he began writing news and opinion articles about film, theater, new media, science, technology and political issues in QPORIT: Quick Previews Of Random Interesting Things. In 2015, he invented the term eXtended Reality (XR) in an article here, in QPORIT.

 

 He is currently preparing a book and presenting a series of talks called

EXTENDED REALITY AND THE FUTURE OF US ALL

 

DISCLAIMER: I am not a lawyer. If I make statements or state opinions about the law or judges or justices or decisions or the Constitution, I am doing that as a legal civilian. The Constitution begins with “We the People…”, not We the Lawyers, and I consider it my right to read the Constitution and understand it, based on what it says, and what is happening in the real word of today.


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